Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 UTEP 20.5%   24 - 9 11 - 5 24 - 9 11 - 5 +7.9      +3.9 68 +4.0 64 69.6 130 +7.9 69 +7.1 4
68 UAB 53.9%   12   22 - 8 12 - 4 22 - 8 12 - 4 +7.9      +3.9 67 +3.9 66 61.0 316 +8.7 62 +10.0 1
74 Southern Miss 5.5%   19 - 10 9 - 7 19 - 10 9 - 7 +6.9      +3.6 72 +3.4 74 67.6 183 +6.6 75 +5.4 5
78 Marshall 9.2%   20 - 11 9 - 7 20 - 11 9 - 7 +6.1      +3.1 81 +3.0 78 71.1 92 +6.2 79 +5.3 6
87 Tulsa 0.4%   19 - 13 11 - 5 19 - 13 11 - 5 +5.1      +2.5 89 +2.6 86 69.4 141 +4.8 96 +7.6 2
92 Memphis 100.0%   11   25 - 9 10 - 6 25 - 9 10 - 6 +4.8      +2.3 96 +2.5 90 73.7 50 +9.6 50 +7.2 3
105 Central Florida 0.3%   18 - 11 6 - 10 18 - 11 6 - 10 +3.8      +1.9 107 +1.9 105 66.9 206 +4.9 94 +1.0 9
141 East Carolina 0.0%   15 - 15 8 - 8 15 - 15 8 - 8 +1.8      +1.0 138 +0.9 140 67.0 203 +2.8 126 +4.5 7
150 SMU 0.0%   14 - 14 8 - 8 14 - 14 8 - 8 +1.2      +0.6 147 +0.5 150 56.6 340 -0.7 175 +3.3 8
153 Rice 0.0%   12 - 18 5 - 11 12 - 18 5 - 11 +1.0      +0.5 153 +0.4 154 63.5 278 -0.8 176 -1.6 10
180 Tulane 0.0%   10 - 17 3 - 13 10 - 17 3 - 13 -1.1      -0.5 183 -0.6 184 66.3 220 -3.9 226 -5.1 12
202 Houston 0.0%   10 - 18 4 - 12 10 - 18 4 - 12 -2.6      -1.3 201 -1.3 206 68.0 169 -3.0 212 -2.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UTEP 2.0 100.0
UAB 1.0 100.0
Southern Miss 5.0 100.0
Marshall 5.0 100.0
Tulsa 2.0 100.0
Memphis 4.0 100.0
Central Florida 9.0 100.0
East Carolina 7.0 100.0
SMU 7.0 100.0
Rice 10.0 100.0
Tulane 12.0 100.0
Houston 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UTEP 11 - 5 100.0
UAB 12 - 4 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 7 100.0
Marshall 9 - 7 100.0
Tulsa 11 - 5 100.0
Memphis 10 - 6 100.0
Central Florida 6 - 10 100.0
East Carolina 8 - 8 100.0
SMU 8 - 8 100.0
Rice 5 - 11 100.0
Tulane 3 - 13 100.0
Houston 4 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UTEP
UAB 100.0% 100.0
Southern Miss
Marshall
Tulsa
Memphis
Central Florida
East Carolina
SMU
Rice
Tulane
Houston


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UTEP 20.5% 0.0% 20.5% 0.0 0.1 1.7 17.6 1.1 79.5 20.5%
UAB 53.9% 0.0% 53.9% 12   0.0 0.5 4.6 15.3 32.5 1.1 46.1 53.9%
Southern Miss 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0 4.4 1.0 94.5 5.5%
Marshall 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0 0.2 8.0 1.0 90.8 9.2%
Tulsa 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.4%
Memphis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.6 10.3 45.3 36.4 7.3
Central Florida 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.3%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UTEP 20.5% 16.8% 11.3% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 53.9% 27.6% 38.3% 11.8% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.5% 5.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 9.2% 8.6% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 23.4% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 29.5 52.7 16.5 1.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 50.3 43.7 6.0 0.1
2nd Round 35.6% 0.4 64.4 31.6 3.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 7.7% 0.1 92.4 7.5 0.2
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0